Currency Market Trading Tips 02 May

MARKET OVERVIEW
Dollar lost 0.23 percent & closed at Rs. 60.5800 in futures. The spot rate is currently at 60.31. FIIs bought securities worth net Rs. 123.68 crores in the cash & derivatives segment of the Indian equity markets on Wednesday. Dollar Index is currently trading at 79.5530 up 0.03 percent from previous close. Chicago PMI was 63.0, up from 55.9 in March.

Real GDP increased 0.1 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter of 2014, following an increase of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013. Advance GDP Price Index increased 1.3 percent in the first quarter, following an increase of 1.6 percent in the fourth. Employment Cost Index rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in the first three months of 2014, below expectations for a 0.5% increase.

The Fed said in a statement it would reduce its monthly bond purchases to USD 45 billion from USD 55 billion, as expected. Jobless claims in US rose by 14,000 to 344,000 in the period ended April 26, the highest level since Feb. 22.

US Core PCE Price Index increased 0.2% in March. Personal Spending surged a seasonally adjusted 0.9% from February. ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.9 last month from a reading of 53.7 in March.

OUTLOOK FOR TODAY: USD INR
We expect the rupee to trade on a neutral to positive note against the dollar taking cues from weak dollar index, less positive than expected employment & growth data from US. However, weakness in the global markets & corrections in the domestic market may cap sharp gains in the rupee.
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Technical Outlook: As seen on the intraday chart, USDINR has breached the support of an up sloping channel & is currently taking support at the 60.50 mark. If it breaches this level, then it is likely to head towards the 60 mark. On the upside, 60.72 is an significant resistance.

CURRENCY TRACKER: 2nd May 2014
CURRENCY CONTRACT S2 S1 LTP R1 R2
USDINR May 59.94 60.3 60.555 60.72 61.2
EURINR May 82.62 83.36 83.835 84.15 84.64
GBPINR May 100.82 101.34 101.865 102.22 102.85
JPYINR May 58.47 58.84 59.0675 59.43 59.85 
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